Search results

The issue of the link between wars and economic cycles and the sense of the causality has given rise to many economic studies. The statistical works of N. D. Kondratiev11Kondratiev (1935). This paper is a synthetic presentation of Kondratiev's works during the 1920s. in the 1930s, showing the existence of long economic cycles regulating capitalism, have contributed much to the economic cycles' theory. This analysis based on the observation of long-term economic changes in GDP growth rates and/or price levels shows some rising and declining phases, as well as reversal points of the cycles. Among the most easily identifiable phenomena are the following: the economic crisis of the 1930s, the post–Second World War growth period, and the economic crisis that started in the 1970s. However, as shown by a study of Tylecote, A. (1992). History as a forecasting tool: The future of the European economy in a long-wave/long-cycle perspective. Review of Political Economy, 4(2), 226–248. The long economic cycles are less identifiable for the period 1850–1930, unless the disruptive effects of the American Civil War and First World War are considered: their recessive and then reflationary effects would have disrupted the rising and declining phases. But some analyses present war as being a central factor in long-term economic changes.

Modelski, G. (1987). Long cycles in world politics. London: Macmillan of long cycles had become very famous in the 1980s. It identifies cycles of 100–120 years, starting with an exceptionally long global war (it may also be a more discontinuous phase of war, like the two world wars) and giving rise to a new dominant power. Its technological and commercial domination permits keeping an uncontested supremacy, until some competing powers start to erode it. However, this theory does not focus on the links between major wars and long-term economic changes.

This issue having been largely studied in the past, the first part of the paper will present a review of these analyses. Then in the second part, it will ask if these ideas may help in predicting future major economic crises and related international conflicts. It is a delicate task, as it is as difficult to show subsequently a link between economic cycles and major wars as to predict future cyclical phenomena on the world economic and political scene.

According to the 2005 Human Development Report, if the number of conflicts has decreased since 1990, the last two decades are still ridden with violent disputes. These conflicts are distinct from previous periods in the sense that victims are no longer primarily soldiers or military personnel, but also civilians. Women and children are the most vulnerable in these conflicts (the number of civilian loss today is about 90%, the majority being women and children). Because of their social status and sex, women are subjected to several types of violence: rapes, sexual slavery, forced pregnancy, mutilation, or forced sterilization. Far more than the number of victims, the consequences of these conflicts on human development in terms of growth reduction due to infrastructure damages, and to food, health, and education system dislocations are important cost factors and must be taken into account (UNDP, 2005). And nevertheless, all of which revolves around the conflicts has always been considered as men's prerogatives. National and international institutions responsible for these issues are generally composed of men. Decisions, made about conflicts and peace, are often issued by men. Women's needs, opinions, and expectations are rarely taken into account. The specificity of the woman's role has not yet been put in integrated decision-makings, whether concerning the reintegration of women fighters after conflicts, their participation in the resolution process and the prevention of conflicts, or whether concerning postconflict reconstruction. Women associations have worked a lot to be heard and to be represented in various political authorities.L’absence des femmes dans les lieux de décisions et de pouvoir (ou quand elles sont représentées la place singulière qu’elles occupent) est l’un des symptômes qui révèlent un dysfonctionnement de la démocratie et oblige à reconsidérer les contours mêmes de la notion de citoyenneté, étant entendu que les femmes ne sont pas le seules cibles de l’exclusion et que ces questions s’inscrivent dans un contexte politique plus large ou exclure est devenu un mode de gouverner¹. (Apfelbaum, 1996)

This chapter aims to present the implementation of the United Nations 1325 resolution about the rights of women, including their protection against violence. This resolution is the main international instrument which incorporates and mandates a gender perspective in all aspects of peace building, from prevention to conflict resolution. It is part of a necessary evolution of gender relations in peace building since 1975 and the Conference of Mexico. More broadly, this text would lead to improve the women’s representation presence in the social and economic sphere and their important role in development.

There are two main doctrines about the relation between war and national economy. The first considered that economy based on the market is a cause of war. The second one established that market and economic knowledge are essential for the realization of peace.

Saul (Shaul) Arlosoroff graduated from the Israel Institute of Technology (Technion) in mechanical engineering (1953 – BSc, and 1954 – Dipl. Eng.) and later graduated from the Tel Aviv University/Management school – with MBA in public enterprises and economics (1970–1972). For over 50 years he has been involved in urban and rural water resources management, supply and demand aspects, in over 40 countries. He served as the World Bank Program Manager for water and sanitation (1981–1992), residing in Israel serving as an international consultant on mainly regional and local water and sanitation, and related conflicts, and political issues. He has published various articles within books and scientific events.